Designer jeans in Anchorage, Alaska? - American City Business Journals- msnbc.com

Designer jeans in Anchorage, Alaska? - American City Business Journals- msnbc.com

My new found home hits the national media.

The tumultuous years of oil booms and busts in the 1970s and '80s have given way to two decades of steady growth, and Anchorage's economy has expanded to include burgeoning retail, health care and tourism industries.

The influx of non-oil, non-military jobs has altered the city's demographics, making it less like a frontier town.

At one time, men far outnumbered women in Alaska. But in 2006, the city of 270,000 had 102 men for every 100 women, state demographer Eddie Hunsinger said. The ratio for the rest of Alaska was 108 to 100.

Leese Lloyd and Ashley Brusven, young baristas who grew up in Anchorage, said the notion that the city has an overabundance of men is an outdated stereotype.

"Where are they?" Brusven joked as customers in the adjacent New Sagaya City Market surveyed stuffed grape leaves, caprese, baklava and other un-Alaskan foods.

The city is also reshaping its modest skyline with a $100 million museum expansion, a $93 million convention center and a parking garage with room for 830 vehicles. Companies are putting up new hotels and glass-plated office buildings.

Anchorage really is quite civilized, but it's still Alaska and has its quirks. I regularly dodge moose in the road and dog sledding results are reported on all t.v. and radio sports round ups.

The winters here are over dramatized. It's actually a lot milder than some places in the northern lower 48. It's not that the winters are unbearable, they just last a long time. For me, I love it. When I see snow, I still feel like a kid, besides the skiing is great.

Battle of wills...

On monday, my sons "spelling" homework was to make a collage of spelling words. I made him write the words 3x each and sent a note in saying that we had run out of glue at home.

Today his teacher sent home a stick of glue...

Should I come up with another dumb excuse or just tell the teacher the truth... I am ethically opposed to cutting up perfectly good magazines and newspaper?

Barack Obama = Britney Spears

Barack Obama fans fill arenas with an eye on 'history':

"To hear those in the nosebleed sections explain it, playing hooky from work or school to see Obama has become less about politics, and more about bearing witness to history - the phenomenon that is Obama."

I wonder if these same people will still watch as closely if he self-destructs. Of course they will, witness Britney Spears.

adn.com | Money : Housing hard times hit builder and his clients

adn.com Money : Housing hard times hit builder and his clients

HOUSING MARKET WOBBLES
Baker's troubles seem to coincide with a slowdown in the local housing market.

Home sales have dropped, builders are seeking fewer construction permits, and homeowners are having to wait longer to sell their properties.

Foreclosures also have surged as some homeowners struggle to make mortgage payments.

But builders and other players insist the sky isn't falling for the local real estate market.

They say the Anchorage area isn't experiencing anything like the collapse of the late 1980s, when home construction far outstripped demand, prices crashed and many builders, bankers and property owners found themselves hopelessly under water.

They also say the Alaska housing market has remained fairly isolated from the Lower 48 housing depression brought about in part by easy loans to home buyers with weak credit.

Dan Fauske, who heads the Alaska Housing Finance Corp., a state lending agency, contends the local market is sound, though not what it was a couple of years back.

"It's actually, in my estimation, a pretty good buyer's market," he said.

Still, Fauske and others said it's not surprising the downturn could nail some builders such as Baker's Discovery after a string of bullish building seasons.

"Last year, people were pretty much in denial that nongrowth was happening," said Chuck Spinelli, owner of Spinell Homes, one of the area's largest home builders. "Everybody thought that by spring and summer of last year, this little hiccup bubble would be over and we'd be on the fast track again. By fall, everybody realized it didn't happen and there were some harsh realities showing through."

The whole local housing industry has tightened up for leaner times, he said.

Spinelli said he normally builds and sells 150 homes a year on average. But that slowed to 88 homes last year, he said.

"Nobody is out there lending money on speculative building the way they were a year and a half ago," he said.

Bush signs ...

President Bush signed the increase the debt, pander to the electorate, wont do any good, send money to China, delaying the inevitable economic stimulus bill today.


Bush signs stimulus package into law - Stocks & economy- msnbc.com

Barack Obama scares me...

Barack Obama : : Change We Can Believe In Share this video and invite your friends to join our movement

The "Cult of Obama" is really beginning to scare me. I was over at his website reading some of the user comments about the text of his latest victory speech, and the commenter’s come across more as Britney Spears fans than concerned citizens. Now the man can speak, but speaking isn't necessarily saying anything.

Don't get me wrong, Obama would make a great cult leader, but as a President? We can do better than Obama, yes we can...



(p.s. this video freaks me out)

Guess so...

Last week I had sent an email to the Air Force Times asking if they were going to do a story on the housing meltdown and the military.

I am wondering if there is a story in the Military and the Housing Market, especially in regards to Luke and Nellis AFB. Las Vegas and Phoenix have posted some of the largest drops in home prices in the last year. Military members are particularly susceptible to foreclosure, because they are often forced to sell due to a PCS. With a nationwide drop in the housing market predicted, this is going to spread to more and more bases. Here are two references from my blog.

Legislation to Help Military Veterans Survive the Subprime Mortgage Crisis Mortgage Foreclosure & Refinance Resource

House Committee on Veterans’ Affairs Chairman Bob Filner (D-CA) on December 19, 2007 introduced a pair of bills to address the needs of veterans during the ongoing subprime mortgage market crisis.

Well in the latest issue of the Air Force Times their are four stories on the subject. They are behind subscription walls, but here are some quotes from them.

Rep. Bob Filner, D-Calif., the House Veterans’ Affairs Committee chairman, believes the VA loan program needs changes.

He wants the maximum VA loan increased to $630,000 and applied to new and refinanced loans. And he wants loan fees, which now range from 1.25 percent to 3.3 percent of the loan value, to be capped at 1 percent.

“The current VA home loan program is irrelevant because fees for the loans are too high and equity requirements are overly restrictive,” Filner said.

He also wants to expand the Servicemembers’ Civil Relief Act so that National Guard and reserve members called to active duty are protected from foreclosure for up to a year after their mobilization ends — on all mortgages, not just those from the VA.

His proposals are included in bills HR 4883 and HR 4884, introduced Dec. 19.

and this...

But some of the states hit hardest by home foreclosures and mortgage delinquencies, such as Georgia, California, Florida and Ohio, have large military populations. And it’s not just subprime loans that are getting people in trouble.

and...

Ripple effects

A sailor in San Diego who bought a home for $417,000 two years ago using a loan backed by the Veterans Affairs Department now finds that his home is worth $317,000, said Keith Kaufman, personal financial management program manager for the Fleet and Family Support Center for the Navy’s Southwest Region.

That means the sailor is upside down on his loan — he owes more than the house is worth.

and of course they covered this:

Foreclosures negatively affect a person’s credit rating — which can affect service members’ security clearance and harm their careers, he noted.

All points I have mentioned before. Now when is CNN going to pick up on it.

parentalcation: And it starts:

parentalcation: The Military and the Housing Market Prediction

parentalcation: The Housing Bubble and the Military

McCainBlogette.com

If pissing off Rush Limbaugh isn't enough of a reason to support John McCain, how about the fact that his daughter and her fellow "bloggettes" are hot.

McCainBlogette.com

BLOOD ON THE STREET: Manhattan meets reality

BLOOD ON THE STREET: TRADER

A trader at the New York Stock Exchange could not name a Wall Street firm that did not cut staff this week. Many swung the ax all right - handing out pink slips even as bonus season failed to lighten the dark mood.

I wonder what this will do to the Manhattan housing market? Oh thats rights, there are boat loads of foreigners just dying to buy the vacant properties.

And it starts:

Legislation to Help Military Veterans Survive the Subprime Mortgage Crisis Mortgage Foreclosure & Refinance Resource

House Committee on Veterans’ Affairs Chairman Bob Filner (D-CA) on December 19, 2007 introduced a pair of bills to address the needs of veterans during the ongoing subprime mortgage market crisis.
...
H.R. 4883 will prohibit foreclosure of property owned by a servicemember for one year following a period of military service.
...
“For many of our returning servicemembers and veterans, the stress of what they have gone through in war is still prevalent when they return home,” continued Chairman Filner. “Unfortunately, for many of these heroes, subprime loans are the only option when they do not have the best credit score, and more often than not, their low credit score is a direct result of their service to our country."

Winston-Salem Journal Military families among those hit with home foreclosures

FAYETTEVILLE, N.C. - The number of defaulted home mortgages in the state has risen sharply in recent years, and about a third of foreclosure auctions in the Fayetteville area have involved active-duty military families or veterans.

Military members are going to be particularly susceptible to the housing crash because in many cases they will be unable to wait it out, and be forced into a position of having to sell, due to mandatory military moves.

Anchorage Real Estate: 2007 Annual Homes Sales Data Published

Anchorage Real Estate: 2007 Annual Homes Sales Data Published:

The headline numbers are that the average price of a home in Anchorage rose 3.75% last year, notwithstanding a 10.3% decline in total residential sales. Only high-end homes, above $750,000, are experiencing excessive market times. Those sellers are in the process of adjusting their expectations.

The gap between final listing prices and ultimate selling prices has widened to 1.75%. That figure does not, however, reveal what I believe is a pattern of larger below-the-top-line concessions like seller-paid closing costs and builder upgrades. Nor does it break out market performance by quarter for last year, which probably would have shown a weaker market in the fall and early winter than the first half of the year.

Niel Thomas here is referring to this story, Home sales to remain slow, in the Anchorage Daily News.

I am slowly learning to read between the lines. Niel Thomas is a Realtor who has no incentive to downplay the market, so we must take his slightly bearish remarks as evidence that the market isn't all peachy keen.

I wonder if he would say if "now is a good time to buy"?

As I have mentioned, I know three people who have purchased homes in the last two months. All of them will be force to sell in at least the next four years when their tour is up. At least they aren't stationed in Las Vegas or Phoenix.

Young people and voting

I was listening to NPR on the way to pick up my daughter from daycare this evening, and there was a story on young people and what motivates them to vote.

The women who was being interviewed argued that young people are only motivated to vote if their is an issue that they care passionately about.

This might be true to a degree, but I also think there is a "pied piper" effect. In other words young people are more likely to be motivated by charisma. Not John Edwards or Mitt Romney pretty boy charisma, but real charisma. I don't know how to define it, but I know it when I see it. McCain has it, so does Obama.

The Military and the Housing Market Prediction

The housing crash is going to hurt everyone, but the military is going to be especially hit hard.

1. Because of frequent moves, military members are much more likely to have purchased their house in the last few years during the height of the housing bubble.

2. Because of the availability of 100% financing through VA loans, military members have less built in equity.

3. Because of the nature of the job and assignment changes, military members are under a lot more pressure to sell quickly than civilians.

Perhaps the only thing that military members have going for them is the fact that we tended to stick to traditional fixed rate loans.

Prediction: We will see several national media stories focused on military victims of the housing market in Las Vegas and Phoneix.

p.s. I think I am upsetting people at work. Several people I work with have recently bought homes, and it is amazing how uniformed they are about the market and the risks of a decline in prices. The only advice most of them got was from their relators... not exactly unbiased advice.

Alaska Real Estate, Anchorage

Alaska Real Estate, Anchorage, Juneau, Fairbanks, Sitka:

"Anchorage is easily the state’s largest urban center with nearly half of the state’s population. Housing sales have slowed like the over-whelming majority of the country, and Anchorage is projected by Housing Predictor to see deflation of 4.1% in 2008. The market boomed for a while, but not at double digit levels like in other areas of the nation."

It's hard to find independent analysis of the Anchorage housing market, but I did come across this. Thank god I am renting.

A Bearish Sign on N.Y. Home Prices - December 27, 2007 - The New York Sun

A Bearish Sign on N.Y. Home Prices - December 27, 2007 - The New York Sun:

New York City's status as a rosy exception to the nation's slowing housing market may be starting to come to an end.

Right now, most residents of NYC think that they are immune to the housing crash slump, but I'm not so sure.

Some real estate analysts say that despite the country's overall slowdown, Manhattan apartment prices will maintain an upward trajectory in the fourth quarter. "Our fourth quarter report is coming out next week and we expect price growth will continue," the chief economist at Halstead Property, Gregory Heym, said. "Several new condo developments are starting to close, such as the Plaza and 15 Central Park West, which will help push up prices."

In addition to apartment closings at new developments, where prices are often high, there are many larger units that are also closing, Mr. Heym said. Despite the market turmoil, Wall Street bonuses at many firms are expected to be solid, and with a weak dollar, foreign buyers continue to flock to Manhattan.

I guess in a few years Manhattan is going to consist of nothing but Wall Street executives living amongst a bunch of empty foreign owned apartments that are only used a couple of weekends a year.

Seven things

Seven things at Joanne Jacobs

So Joanne tagged me. Normally I don't participate in these sort of things, but as you may of noticed, I have been slack about blogging. So without further ado, seven random things about me:

1. I have lived over half my life overseas, in New Zealand and Europe.

2. I am planning a trip to Vietnam this year to help my brother find his birth father.

3. I divorced my first wife twice.

4. While living in Europe, I got involved in Hashing.

5. I have had the same best friend since 7th grade.

6. I hate horror movies.

7. I have two 1959 Vespa GS150 scooters in my garage that I am restoring (very very slowly).

This branch of seven things will die with me, since most of the blogs I read have already been tagged.

Multiple Choice Question

EXCLUSIVE: Paulson 'Optimistic' on Subprime Plan:

Paulson said the plan will not be a government-run bailout of subprime borrowers, and the banks that loaned them money. Instead, Paulson said, the government is just providing an industry-sponsored solution to borrowers who can afford to own a home but would have trouble making their mortgage payments after a reset.

'This is not a government subsidy that we're talking about here,' said Paulson.

'This is something that the industry will do where it makes sense.'

The plan would establish guidelines for lenders to freeze payments for homeowners who qualify for the program. Paulson said the program would be completely voluntary, and only some borrowers would qualify.

He said homeowners who can handle an increase in payments and those who don't 'have the financial capability to own a home' will not be offered an interest-rate 'freeze. [emphasis mine]

Once upon a time their were three families who both bought a home June of 2006. The families were identical in every way. They had the same credit rating, the same amount of debt, the same income, the same number of kids. For all practical purposes they were mirror images of each other, except for one thing...

The first family decided to buy a 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom starter house in a decent neighborhood using a fixed rate interest loan which they were able to get because they had been saving up for a down payment for several years. They made sure to take out a loan that they could afford and because they already had some built in equity, they weren't to worried about the housing market.

The second family decided to buy a 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom executive home in a great neighborhood. They did take out an adjustable rate loan, but they weren't to worried since they made sure that the house wasn't so expensive that they couldn't afford the reset if for some reason they were unable to refinance in a couple of years. It would be tight, but they figured they would be ok, especially since their payments were exactly the same as the first family and they had a bigger and better house.

The third family decided to buy a 5 bedroom, 3 bathroom McMansion instead. They knew they wouldn't be able to afford to the reset, but figured what the hell, they would always be able to refinance, because after all "housing prices always go up." They can afford their current payment, but it is tight.

Multiple Choice Question: Which family will soon get a helping hand?

The first family is living within their means, they made good decisions, and are financially sound... they won't be getting anything from the government.

The second family is still OK. They might be overstretched, but at least they were smart enough to make sure they could afford the reset. The government doesn't give a crap about them either.

The third family is living it up, living far and above their means. Yes... this family will be getting a helping hand from President Bush and the rest of the crooks that run the predatory mortgage companies.

Can you say Moral Hazard?

Moral Hazard is the prospect that a party insulated from risk may behave differently, for example, that an insured party's behavior will be more risky than it would without the insurance. Moral hazard arises because an individual or institution does not bear the full consequences of its actions, and therefore has a tendency to act less carefully than it otherwise would, leaving another party to bear some responsibility for the consequences of those actions.

U.S., Banks Near A Plan to Freeze Subprime Rates

Free Preview - WSJ.com

U.S., Banks Near A Plan to Freeze Subprime Rates

By Deborah Solomon and Michael M. Phillips

Word Count: 1,346 | Companies Featured in This Article: Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Washington Mutual

WASHINGTON -- The Bush administration and major financial institutions are close to agreeing on a plan that would temporarily freeze interest rates on certain troubled subprime home loans, according to people familiar with the negotiations.

An accord could reassure investors and strapped homeowners, both of whom are anxious as interest rates on more than two million adjustable mortgages are scheduled to jump over the next two years. It could also give a boost to the Bush administration, which is facing criticism for inaction amid the recent housing turmoil.

It's pretty sad when even the Republican party is turning into market manipulating, welfare state supporting, gutless panderers.

And the main stream media wonders why people support candidates like Ron Paul. I will never ever vote for a single politician who supports this plan.

Next year for an encore they are going to pay off debts for anyone who files for bankruptcy. Go ahead, don't worry about your credit rating, take out some bad loans, be late on payments, buy that third house on a subprime loan, the government will be hear to bail you out.

I.G.N.I.T.E.: Another Anchorage Gifted Blog

I.G.N.I.T.E.

Today I found another blog, this one ran by a gifted teacher in the Anchorage School District.

He only has a few posts, but I think it illustrates nicely what todays current gifted education consist off.

While some of their activities are interesting (launching a model rocket and seeing how much weight a balloon can lift), I suspect that the activities could of just as been easily accomplished by your average elementary school student.

Why do gifted programs bother to put selective criteria on admission and then dumb down the curriculum?

Can you imagine the outrage if we tried to put all high school students in the same math and english classes? Ability grouping is fine for older kids, but younger kids just have to suffer. Can't let the kids get to far ahead... right?

Last night I taught my 4th grader how to add, subtract, and multiply mixed fractions in approximately one hour, and he isn't even in the gifted program.

Imagine what they (elementary school gifted programs) could do if they spent their two hours a week providing accelerated math instruction, and perhaps some more challenging science and reading.

Anchoragegifted’s Weblog

Anchoragegifted’s Weblog

Last night I ran across the Anchorage School Districts Gifted Blog. It's a great idea for communication, but I hope to see it updated a bit more.

I posted a comment asking for more information, so hopefully I can spur some debate.