Monday, October 13, 2008

No worse than the experts...

The experts seem to be wrong at least half the time, so let me try my hand at a little economic forecasting.

False bounce.  The DJI isn't finished diving.  I predict a low of 7500 +/- 200.

That, and buy Siemens.  (Actually I bought Siemens last Friday at 62).  Even at 73, I think its a good long term buy.

Disclaimer: I have no idea what I am talking about.  Only follow my advice if you are a fool.

[update] the dude who predicted it all agrees with me.

From Bloomberg: Roubini Sees Worst Recession in 40 Years, Rally's End
Nouriel Roubini, the professor who predicted the financial crisis in 2006, said the U.S. will suffer its worst recession in 40 years, causing the rally in the stock market to ``sputter.'' 
via Calculated Risk