Young people and voting

I was listening to NPR on the way to pick up my daughter from daycare this evening, and there was a story on young people and what motivates them to vote.

The women who was being interviewed argued that young people are only motivated to vote if their is an issue that they care passionately about.

This might be true to a degree, but I also think there is a "pied piper" effect. In other words young people are more likely to be motivated by charisma. Not John Edwards or Mitt Romney pretty boy charisma, but real charisma. I don't know how to define it, but I know it when I see it. McCain has it, so does Obama.

The Military and the Housing Market Prediction

The housing crash is going to hurt everyone, but the military is going to be especially hit hard.

1. Because of frequent moves, military members are much more likely to have purchased their house in the last few years during the height of the housing bubble.

2. Because of the availability of 100% financing through VA loans, military members have less built in equity.

3. Because of the nature of the job and assignment changes, military members are under a lot more pressure to sell quickly than civilians.

Perhaps the only thing that military members have going for them is the fact that we tended to stick to traditional fixed rate loans.

Prediction: We will see several national media stories focused on military victims of the housing market in Las Vegas and Phoneix.

p.s. I think I am upsetting people at work. Several people I work with have recently bought homes, and it is amazing how uniformed they are about the market and the risks of a decline in prices. The only advice most of them got was from their relators... not exactly unbiased advice.

Alaska Real Estate, Anchorage

Alaska Real Estate, Anchorage, Juneau, Fairbanks, Sitka:

"Anchorage is easily the state’s largest urban center with nearly half of the state’s population. Housing sales have slowed like the over-whelming majority of the country, and Anchorage is projected by Housing Predictor to see deflation of 4.1% in 2008. The market boomed for a while, but not at double digit levels like in other areas of the nation."

It's hard to find independent analysis of the Anchorage housing market, but I did come across this. Thank god I am renting.

A Bearish Sign on N.Y. Home Prices - December 27, 2007 - The New York Sun

A Bearish Sign on N.Y. Home Prices - December 27, 2007 - The New York Sun:

New York City's status as a rosy exception to the nation's slowing housing market may be starting to come to an end.

Right now, most residents of NYC think that they are immune to the housing crash slump, but I'm not so sure.

Some real estate analysts say that despite the country's overall slowdown, Manhattan apartment prices will maintain an upward trajectory in the fourth quarter. "Our fourth quarter report is coming out next week and we expect price growth will continue," the chief economist at Halstead Property, Gregory Heym, said. "Several new condo developments are starting to close, such as the Plaza and 15 Central Park West, which will help push up prices."

In addition to apartment closings at new developments, where prices are often high, there are many larger units that are also closing, Mr. Heym said. Despite the market turmoil, Wall Street bonuses at many firms are expected to be solid, and with a weak dollar, foreign buyers continue to flock to Manhattan.

I guess in a few years Manhattan is going to consist of nothing but Wall Street executives living amongst a bunch of empty foreign owned apartments that are only used a couple of weekends a year.

Seven things

Seven things at Joanne Jacobs

So Joanne tagged me. Normally I don't participate in these sort of things, but as you may of noticed, I have been slack about blogging. So without further ado, seven random things about me:

1. I have lived over half my life overseas, in New Zealand and Europe.

2. I am planning a trip to Vietnam this year to help my brother find his birth father.

3. I divorced my first wife twice.

4. While living in Europe, I got involved in Hashing.

5. I have had the same best friend since 7th grade.

6. I hate horror movies.

7. I have two 1959 Vespa GS150 scooters in my garage that I am restoring (very very slowly).

This branch of seven things will die with me, since most of the blogs I read have already been tagged.

Multiple Choice Question

EXCLUSIVE: Paulson 'Optimistic' on Subprime Plan:

Paulson said the plan will not be a government-run bailout of subprime borrowers, and the banks that loaned them money. Instead, Paulson said, the government is just providing an industry-sponsored solution to borrowers who can afford to own a home but would have trouble making their mortgage payments after a reset.

'This is not a government subsidy that we're talking about here,' said Paulson.

'This is something that the industry will do where it makes sense.'

The plan would establish guidelines for lenders to freeze payments for homeowners who qualify for the program. Paulson said the program would be completely voluntary, and only some borrowers would qualify.

He said homeowners who can handle an increase in payments and those who don't 'have the financial capability to own a home' will not be offered an interest-rate 'freeze. [emphasis mine]

Once upon a time their were three families who both bought a home June of 2006. The families were identical in every way. They had the same credit rating, the same amount of debt, the same income, the same number of kids. For all practical purposes they were mirror images of each other, except for one thing...

The first family decided to buy a 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom starter house in a decent neighborhood using a fixed rate interest loan which they were able to get because they had been saving up for a down payment for several years. They made sure to take out a loan that they could afford and because they already had some built in equity, they weren't to worried about the housing market.

The second family decided to buy a 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom executive home in a great neighborhood. They did take out an adjustable rate loan, but they weren't to worried since they made sure that the house wasn't so expensive that they couldn't afford the reset if for some reason they were unable to refinance in a couple of years. It would be tight, but they figured they would be ok, especially since their payments were exactly the same as the first family and they had a bigger and better house.

The third family decided to buy a 5 bedroom, 3 bathroom McMansion instead. They knew they wouldn't be able to afford to the reset, but figured what the hell, they would always be able to refinance, because after all "housing prices always go up." They can afford their current payment, but it is tight.

Multiple Choice Question: Which family will soon get a helping hand?

The first family is living within their means, they made good decisions, and are financially sound... they won't be getting anything from the government.

The second family is still OK. They might be overstretched, but at least they were smart enough to make sure they could afford the reset. The government doesn't give a crap about them either.

The third family is living it up, living far and above their means. Yes... this family will be getting a helping hand from President Bush and the rest of the crooks that run the predatory mortgage companies.

Can you say Moral Hazard?

Moral Hazard is the prospect that a party insulated from risk may behave differently, for example, that an insured party's behavior will be more risky than it would without the insurance. Moral hazard arises because an individual or institution does not bear the full consequences of its actions, and therefore has a tendency to act less carefully than it otherwise would, leaving another party to bear some responsibility for the consequences of those actions.

U.S., Banks Near A Plan to Freeze Subprime Rates

Free Preview - WSJ.com

U.S., Banks Near A Plan to Freeze Subprime Rates

By Deborah Solomon and Michael M. Phillips

Word Count: 1,346 | Companies Featured in This Article: Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Washington Mutual

WASHINGTON -- The Bush administration and major financial institutions are close to agreeing on a plan that would temporarily freeze interest rates on certain troubled subprime home loans, according to people familiar with the negotiations.

An accord could reassure investors and strapped homeowners, both of whom are anxious as interest rates on more than two million adjustable mortgages are scheduled to jump over the next two years. It could also give a boost to the Bush administration, which is facing criticism for inaction amid the recent housing turmoil.

It's pretty sad when even the Republican party is turning into market manipulating, welfare state supporting, gutless panderers.

And the main stream media wonders why people support candidates like Ron Paul. I will never ever vote for a single politician who supports this plan.

Next year for an encore they are going to pay off debts for anyone who files for bankruptcy. Go ahead, don't worry about your credit rating, take out some bad loans, be late on payments, buy that third house on a subprime loan, the government will be hear to bail you out.

I.G.N.I.T.E.: Another Anchorage Gifted Blog

I.G.N.I.T.E.

Today I found another blog, this one ran by a gifted teacher in the Anchorage School District.

He only has a few posts, but I think it illustrates nicely what todays current gifted education consist off.

While some of their activities are interesting (launching a model rocket and seeing how much weight a balloon can lift), I suspect that the activities could of just as been easily accomplished by your average elementary school student.

Why do gifted programs bother to put selective criteria on admission and then dumb down the curriculum?

Can you imagine the outrage if we tried to put all high school students in the same math and english classes? Ability grouping is fine for older kids, but younger kids just have to suffer. Can't let the kids get to far ahead... right?

Last night I taught my 4th grader how to add, subtract, and multiply mixed fractions in approximately one hour, and he isn't even in the gifted program.

Imagine what they (elementary school gifted programs) could do if they spent their two hours a week providing accelerated math instruction, and perhaps some more challenging science and reading.

Anchoragegifted’s Weblog

Anchoragegifted’s Weblog

Last night I ran across the Anchorage School Districts Gifted Blog. It's a great idea for communication, but I hope to see it updated a bit more.

I posted a comment asking for more information, so hopefully I can spur some debate.

Good Idea Backfires

Two weeks ago, Aurora Elementary instituted a great program in which students were rewarded for eating healthy foods. Teachers and volunteers would go around during lunch, and give tickets to students eating a healthy food. Our kids loved it, they insisted on having healthy snacks for lunch, and came home everyday bragging about getting tickets.

Fastforward to this morning...

Our normal morning routines consists of waking the kids up around 7am, so that they can eat breakfast, get ready, make their own lunches, and then leave at 8:30 to catch the bus. Normally, I am around to oversee this since I get home from my grave shift at around 730am, right before my wife leaves for work.

This morning though, my wife and I decided to take our toddler to day care together at around 8am. The kids were already ready, all they had to do was make their lunch, and head out the door. They had a full half hour to complete this simple task.

We pulled up to the house at around 9am after stopping off for coffee, looking forward to coming inside and relaxing in an empty house. Imagine our surprise when we walked into the house, and our kids were still there.

Seems like they "couldn't find any healthy snacks" so just decided to miss the bus. This is two 10 year olds and an 8 year old.

After we chewed their little behinds and dropped them off at school, my wife and I laughed our asses off, at how dedicated to healthy snacks they were.

Funny enough they still prefer junk food on the weekends.

Warren High School Class of 88

Ok, this post is doing nothing more than creating a link for google search..., just ignore it. Unless of course you happened to graduate from Warren High School, Downey, California in 1988, then go on over.

Almost forgot, here is the link: Warren High School Class of 88

The Housing Bubble and the Military

It occurred to me that military people will be hit especially hard during this housing downturn.

Thanks to housing privatization, the supply of base housing is being greatly reduced, so more military people have been buying houses the last few years. Military people are conservative (poor) by nature, and we tend to use fixed rate VA loans, with very little down. Unfortunately, we are also subjected to mandatory military moves, so when we need to sell, we need to sell. Add to this that many bases are located in huge bubble areas (3 AF bases in Fl, Nellis AFB in Las Vegas, 2 AF bases in AZ, etc...).

I already know of a few people who are hurting because they can't sell their house. There is added stress because a foreclosure looks bad on the military member, and the hit can affect their security clearance.

I am predicting that this will become a major issue in the military in the next few years. For the record, the military will not buy your house, unless it is a result of a down market caused by a base closure. On military moves, we are on our own.

Schools stunned by voter rejection

Schools stunned by voter rejection:

Voters looked at their rising mortgage payments, the empty houses on their streets and a shaky economy. Then, in 17 of 22 districts, they shot down proposals to maintain funding for Valley schools, deciding they couldn't afford it.

Expect much more of this. The housing market is tanking, people are asking for lowered property tax appraisals, tax receipts are down, we are on the verge of a major recession... school funding is going to be a low priority for many people.

Of course, as house prices come down to reasonable levels, teachers will be able to finally afford to buy a decent house in a decent neighborhood.

Friday

Friday, Friday, Friday is my favorite day.
Friday, Friday, Friday is my favorite day.
Monday is a bummer, Tuesday's only fair.
Wednesday's gettin' better, Thursday's almost there,
But
Friday, Friday Friday is my favorite day.

The housing slump and Education

Housing slump affects sales tax collections | ajc.com:

Georgia's tax collections fell slightly last month, following a trend across the country where the housing slump has begun to affect state budgets and sparked talk of spending cuts for education and health care.

As houses depreciate, property taxes will inevitable be reduced. Not only will their be less property taxes collected, but spenders will also cut back on a lot of discretionary spending, causing a reduction in sales tax collections.

Education will be a primary target for local and state governments, when they look to make spending cuts.

The hardest hit areas are going to be large cities with a significant portion of poor and minority students. Reduced funding won't make all that much difference to well funded middle class suburban school districts.

How to tell if your local Gifted Program is worth a S%^#

Walk in to your local elementary school and observe a hour of the gifted program.

Ask yourself if they did anything in that hour that was beyond the capacity of an average child.

If the answer is no, then the chances are that you just witnessed your tax dollars going up in smoke.

Proud parents...

Our 2nd grader, who is a struggling reader, won an award Friday for "outstanding diligence".

We weren't quite sure what this meant and why she was chosen, but our daughter explained it to us.

"The teacher wrote everyone's name on a piece of paper and put it in the hat. Then she picked out four names, and I won. Aren't you so proud of me daddy?"

Actually I am very proud of her, but I don't need meaningless awards to justify it.

Vampire...

No, not a teacher, not the schools, me.

I am on grave shift for the next few months.

I go to work at 1130 at night and then get off at 730 in the morning. After the kids leave for school at 830, I sleep until they get home. Then its pick up the baby, do homework, cook dinner, and then put the kids to the bed.

Anyways... I am so jet lagged, my brain is mush.

I am so wrong...

The housing market crash has finally hit cable. I am sitting here watching "Please buy my house".

One woman desperate to sell her 3/4 of a million dollar home hired a feng shui expert, another family went on to a local real estate radio program and practically begged for someone to buy, while another couple hired their grandson to decorate.

Idiots. Lower the friggin price... this isn't 2005. The bubble is over. Homes are places to live, not investments.

Ok, I do feel a bit for the older couple... but its is a bit entertaining to see desperation in real estate instead of all those smug house flipper shows.

Good things about Aurora Elementary on Elmendorf Air Force Base

I know I complain a lot, so here are some really cool things about my kids school and classes.

My 4th grade girls teacher uses a wireless surround sound system so that all of the kids can hear. He is also setting up a class blog.

My 2nd grade teachers doesn't assign reading stories from their whole language text book, instead she sends home photocopies "decodeable" books on the sly. She also has assigned several reading groups in class based on skill level. My daughter is in the lowest, but is improving tremendously.

The school has a really active running club for all grades and puts on track meets. They also have a great P.E. program, and plenty of recess.

My 4th grade son's teacher doesn't overload with homework, which is great, even if he has to do the occasional poster.

The staff is super friendly.

Oh and the math teacher at my 7th graders school pulled out some antique "old school" math text books from 1991 to supplement the "integrated" math books bought by the district. She told the class that they would be mostly working out of the old books. Get this, the old books actually have math stuff in them.