Saturday, January 19, 2008

Anchorage Real Estate: 2007 Annual Homes Sales Data Published

Anchorage Real Estate: 2007 Annual Homes Sales Data Published:

The headline numbers are that the average price of a home in Anchorage rose 3.75% last year, notwithstanding a 10.3% decline in total residential sales. Only high-end homes, above $750,000, are experiencing excessive market times. Those sellers are in the process of adjusting their expectations.

The gap between final listing prices and ultimate selling prices has widened to 1.75%. That figure does not, however, reveal what I believe is a pattern of larger below-the-top-line concessions like seller-paid closing costs and builder upgrades. Nor does it break out market performance by quarter for last year, which probably would have shown a weaker market in the fall and early winter than the first half of the year.

Niel Thomas here is referring to this story, Home sales to remain slow, in the Anchorage Daily News.

I am slowly learning to read between the lines. Niel Thomas is a Realtor who has no incentive to downplay the market, so we must take his slightly bearish remarks as evidence that the market isn't all peachy keen.

I wonder if he would say if "now is a good time to buy"?

As I have mentioned, I know three people who have purchased homes in the last two months. All of them will be force to sell in at least the next four years when their tour is up. At least they aren't stationed in Las Vegas or Phoenix.


Niel Thomas said...

Fair comments, I would say, on market statistics that have come out this month. As for the folks who bought in the past two months, as long as they keep their homes more than three years they should be able to recover their initial investment. Our real estate markets, good and bad, have always been had their performance rooted in jobs and population trends. As long as the economy continues strong and we have even minimal growth, as we did in the 1990 decade, property values should remain stable. If it costs about 8.0% to sell a property and values increase as little as 3% per year then the initial investment is covered after three years.
Niel Thomas, Coldwell Banker Best Properties

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Anonymous said...

Hi Neil,

I too believe your comments are bearish and am wondering how the 'final' asking price compared to the initial asking price on homes sold. I'm also wondering how many homeowners did not renew their listing contracts. What seems evident to me is that buyers coming in after a speculative bubble burst have the option of renting equivalent homes for a significant reduction in fixed monthly cost. Until equalibium is reached between what a home's monthly payment will be and what it will rent for, the market will continue to decline. How come the 2007 MLS statistics have not been released? With those, we can reach our own conclusions...