p.s.

I am in San Antonio this week for a conference. Talk about urban sprawl... nothing but strip malls as far as the eye can see.

And it's way to hot as well.

The government wants you to pay your neighbors mortgage

House discusses $15 billion mortgage bailout - Mortgage mess- msnbc.com

WASHINGTON - Investors could sell up to $15 billion of troubled mortgages to the government under a plan key House members are discussing to bolster the U.S. housing market.

The tentative plan would allow the government to purchase up to 1 million mortgages over five years in an effort to help struggling borrowers avoid foreclosure and financial markets avoid more credit-related losses. The loans would be bought by the Federal Housing Administration, a Depression-era agency that insures loans made to borrowers with poor credit.

The effort shows that the housing crisis has evolved to the point where government officials are considering bailing out large groups of borrowers and Wall Street investors — something that seemed anathema to Democrats and Republicans all last year. Still, many lawmakers and the Bush administration have been leery of proposals that would transfer risks to U.S. taxpayers.

Next year your taxes might very well be used to subsidize refinancing that upside down ARM mortgage that your want-to-be house flipper neighbors bought two years ago, you know the ones... they make $50K a year, yet still managed to buy a house for $600K. Yes those people.

American Idol 7

My wife makes me watch it... but for the record, these are the 6 guys who should make the top 12 finalists.

David Cook

Robbie Carrico

David Archuleta

Jason Castro

Michael Johns

Danny Noriega (I actually hate this guy and really, really want to punch him in the face, but its cathartic to scream at the television every once and a while)

The Importance of Alaska

The Importance of Alaska

What does the father of the U.S. Air Force have to do with Alaska? What does the world’s most advanced military aircraft have to do with the resource security of the United States? Byron King has some intriguing thoughts on these topics.

Billy Mitchell is a hero in the USAF, but he was also a big advocate of Alaska as well.

Part I of the series. See below for part II.

The Importance of Alaska

The Importance of Alaska

This is the second installment of a series on the strategic importance of Alaska. In Part I, Outstanding Investments editor Byron King discussed the life of Billy Mitchell, the father of the U.S. Air Force. Mitchell had a lot to say about both air power and Alaska. In this article, Byron will discuss Billy Mitchell some more and focus on both the geology of Alaska and its place in military strategy.

Bringing Alaska to blog land.

Designer jeans in Anchorage, Alaska? - American City Business Journals- msnbc.com

Designer jeans in Anchorage, Alaska? - American City Business Journals- msnbc.com

My new found home hits the national media.

The tumultuous years of oil booms and busts in the 1970s and '80s have given way to two decades of steady growth, and Anchorage's economy has expanded to include burgeoning retail, health care and tourism industries.

The influx of non-oil, non-military jobs has altered the city's demographics, making it less like a frontier town.

At one time, men far outnumbered women in Alaska. But in 2006, the city of 270,000 had 102 men for every 100 women, state demographer Eddie Hunsinger said. The ratio for the rest of Alaska was 108 to 100.

Leese Lloyd and Ashley Brusven, young baristas who grew up in Anchorage, said the notion that the city has an overabundance of men is an outdated stereotype.

"Where are they?" Brusven joked as customers in the adjacent New Sagaya City Market surveyed stuffed grape leaves, caprese, baklava and other un-Alaskan foods.

The city is also reshaping its modest skyline with a $100 million museum expansion, a $93 million convention center and a parking garage with room for 830 vehicles. Companies are putting up new hotels and glass-plated office buildings.

Anchorage really is quite civilized, but it's still Alaska and has its quirks. I regularly dodge moose in the road and dog sledding results are reported on all t.v. and radio sports round ups.

The winters here are over dramatized. It's actually a lot milder than some places in the northern lower 48. It's not that the winters are unbearable, they just last a long time. For me, I love it. When I see snow, I still feel like a kid, besides the skiing is great.

Battle of wills...

On monday, my sons "spelling" homework was to make a collage of spelling words. I made him write the words 3x each and sent a note in saying that we had run out of glue at home.

Today his teacher sent home a stick of glue...

Should I come up with another dumb excuse or just tell the teacher the truth... I am ethically opposed to cutting up perfectly good magazines and newspaper?

Barack Obama = Britney Spears

Barack Obama fans fill arenas with an eye on 'history':

"To hear those in the nosebleed sections explain it, playing hooky from work or school to see Obama has become less about politics, and more about bearing witness to history - the phenomenon that is Obama."

I wonder if these same people will still watch as closely if he self-destructs. Of course they will, witness Britney Spears.

adn.com | Money : Housing hard times hit builder and his clients

adn.com Money : Housing hard times hit builder and his clients

HOUSING MARKET WOBBLES
Baker's troubles seem to coincide with a slowdown in the local housing market.

Home sales have dropped, builders are seeking fewer construction permits, and homeowners are having to wait longer to sell their properties.

Foreclosures also have surged as some homeowners struggle to make mortgage payments.

But builders and other players insist the sky isn't falling for the local real estate market.

They say the Anchorage area isn't experiencing anything like the collapse of the late 1980s, when home construction far outstripped demand, prices crashed and many builders, bankers and property owners found themselves hopelessly under water.

They also say the Alaska housing market has remained fairly isolated from the Lower 48 housing depression brought about in part by easy loans to home buyers with weak credit.

Dan Fauske, who heads the Alaska Housing Finance Corp., a state lending agency, contends the local market is sound, though not what it was a couple of years back.

"It's actually, in my estimation, a pretty good buyer's market," he said.

Still, Fauske and others said it's not surprising the downturn could nail some builders such as Baker's Discovery after a string of bullish building seasons.

"Last year, people were pretty much in denial that nongrowth was happening," said Chuck Spinelli, owner of Spinell Homes, one of the area's largest home builders. "Everybody thought that by spring and summer of last year, this little hiccup bubble would be over and we'd be on the fast track again. By fall, everybody realized it didn't happen and there were some harsh realities showing through."

The whole local housing industry has tightened up for leaner times, he said.

Spinelli said he normally builds and sells 150 homes a year on average. But that slowed to 88 homes last year, he said.

"Nobody is out there lending money on speculative building the way they were a year and a half ago," he said.

Bush signs ...

President Bush signed the increase the debt, pander to the electorate, wont do any good, send money to China, delaying the inevitable economic stimulus bill today.


Bush signs stimulus package into law - Stocks & economy- msnbc.com

Barack Obama scares me...

Barack Obama : : Change We Can Believe In Share this video and invite your friends to join our movement

The "Cult of Obama" is really beginning to scare me. I was over at his website reading some of the user comments about the text of his latest victory speech, and the commenter’s come across more as Britney Spears fans than concerned citizens. Now the man can speak, but speaking isn't necessarily saying anything.

Don't get me wrong, Obama would make a great cult leader, but as a President? We can do better than Obama, yes we can...



(p.s. this video freaks me out)

Guess so...

Last week I had sent an email to the Air Force Times asking if they were going to do a story on the housing meltdown and the military.

I am wondering if there is a story in the Military and the Housing Market, especially in regards to Luke and Nellis AFB. Las Vegas and Phoenix have posted some of the largest drops in home prices in the last year. Military members are particularly susceptible to foreclosure, because they are often forced to sell due to a PCS. With a nationwide drop in the housing market predicted, this is going to spread to more and more bases. Here are two references from my blog.

Legislation to Help Military Veterans Survive the Subprime Mortgage Crisis Mortgage Foreclosure & Refinance Resource

House Committee on Veterans’ Affairs Chairman Bob Filner (D-CA) on December 19, 2007 introduced a pair of bills to address the needs of veterans during the ongoing subprime mortgage market crisis.

Well in the latest issue of the Air Force Times their are four stories on the subject. They are behind subscription walls, but here are some quotes from them.

Rep. Bob Filner, D-Calif., the House Veterans’ Affairs Committee chairman, believes the VA loan program needs changes.

He wants the maximum VA loan increased to $630,000 and applied to new and refinanced loans. And he wants loan fees, which now range from 1.25 percent to 3.3 percent of the loan value, to be capped at 1 percent.

“The current VA home loan program is irrelevant because fees for the loans are too high and equity requirements are overly restrictive,” Filner said.

He also wants to expand the Servicemembers’ Civil Relief Act so that National Guard and reserve members called to active duty are protected from foreclosure for up to a year after their mobilization ends — on all mortgages, not just those from the VA.

His proposals are included in bills HR 4883 and HR 4884, introduced Dec. 19.

and this...

But some of the states hit hardest by home foreclosures and mortgage delinquencies, such as Georgia, California, Florida and Ohio, have large military populations. And it’s not just subprime loans that are getting people in trouble.

and...

Ripple effects

A sailor in San Diego who bought a home for $417,000 two years ago using a loan backed by the Veterans Affairs Department now finds that his home is worth $317,000, said Keith Kaufman, personal financial management program manager for the Fleet and Family Support Center for the Navy’s Southwest Region.

That means the sailor is upside down on his loan — he owes more than the house is worth.

and of course they covered this:

Foreclosures negatively affect a person’s credit rating — which can affect service members’ security clearance and harm their careers, he noted.

All points I have mentioned before. Now when is CNN going to pick up on it.

parentalcation: And it starts:

parentalcation: The Military and the Housing Market Prediction

parentalcation: The Housing Bubble and the Military

McCainBlogette.com

If pissing off Rush Limbaugh isn't enough of a reason to support John McCain, how about the fact that his daughter and her fellow "bloggettes" are hot.

McCainBlogette.com

BLOOD ON THE STREET: Manhattan meets reality

BLOOD ON THE STREET: TRADER

A trader at the New York Stock Exchange could not name a Wall Street firm that did not cut staff this week. Many swung the ax all right - handing out pink slips even as bonus season failed to lighten the dark mood.

I wonder what this will do to the Manhattan housing market? Oh thats rights, there are boat loads of foreigners just dying to buy the vacant properties.

And it starts:

Legislation to Help Military Veterans Survive the Subprime Mortgage Crisis Mortgage Foreclosure & Refinance Resource

House Committee on Veterans’ Affairs Chairman Bob Filner (D-CA) on December 19, 2007 introduced a pair of bills to address the needs of veterans during the ongoing subprime mortgage market crisis.
...
H.R. 4883 will prohibit foreclosure of property owned by a servicemember for one year following a period of military service.
...
“For many of our returning servicemembers and veterans, the stress of what they have gone through in war is still prevalent when they return home,” continued Chairman Filner. “Unfortunately, for many of these heroes, subprime loans are the only option when they do not have the best credit score, and more often than not, their low credit score is a direct result of their service to our country."

Winston-Salem Journal Military families among those hit with home foreclosures

FAYETTEVILLE, N.C. - The number of defaulted home mortgages in the state has risen sharply in recent years, and about a third of foreclosure auctions in the Fayetteville area have involved active-duty military families or veterans.

Military members are going to be particularly susceptible to the housing crash because in many cases they will be unable to wait it out, and be forced into a position of having to sell, due to mandatory military moves.

Anchorage Real Estate: 2007 Annual Homes Sales Data Published

Anchorage Real Estate: 2007 Annual Homes Sales Data Published:

The headline numbers are that the average price of a home in Anchorage rose 3.75% last year, notwithstanding a 10.3% decline in total residential sales. Only high-end homes, above $750,000, are experiencing excessive market times. Those sellers are in the process of adjusting their expectations.

The gap between final listing prices and ultimate selling prices has widened to 1.75%. That figure does not, however, reveal what I believe is a pattern of larger below-the-top-line concessions like seller-paid closing costs and builder upgrades. Nor does it break out market performance by quarter for last year, which probably would have shown a weaker market in the fall and early winter than the first half of the year.

Niel Thomas here is referring to this story, Home sales to remain slow, in the Anchorage Daily News.

I am slowly learning to read between the lines. Niel Thomas is a Realtor who has no incentive to downplay the market, so we must take his slightly bearish remarks as evidence that the market isn't all peachy keen.

I wonder if he would say if "now is a good time to buy"?

As I have mentioned, I know three people who have purchased homes in the last two months. All of them will be force to sell in at least the next four years when their tour is up. At least they aren't stationed in Las Vegas or Phoenix.

Young people and voting

I was listening to NPR on the way to pick up my daughter from daycare this evening, and there was a story on young people and what motivates them to vote.

The women who was being interviewed argued that young people are only motivated to vote if their is an issue that they care passionately about.

This might be true to a degree, but I also think there is a "pied piper" effect. In other words young people are more likely to be motivated by charisma. Not John Edwards or Mitt Romney pretty boy charisma, but real charisma. I don't know how to define it, but I know it when I see it. McCain has it, so does Obama.

The Military and the Housing Market Prediction

The housing crash is going to hurt everyone, but the military is going to be especially hit hard.

1. Because of frequent moves, military members are much more likely to have purchased their house in the last few years during the height of the housing bubble.

2. Because of the availability of 100% financing through VA loans, military members have less built in equity.

3. Because of the nature of the job and assignment changes, military members are under a lot more pressure to sell quickly than civilians.

Perhaps the only thing that military members have going for them is the fact that we tended to stick to traditional fixed rate loans.

Prediction: We will see several national media stories focused on military victims of the housing market in Las Vegas and Phoneix.

p.s. I think I am upsetting people at work. Several people I work with have recently bought homes, and it is amazing how uniformed they are about the market and the risks of a decline in prices. The only advice most of them got was from their relators... not exactly unbiased advice.

Alaska Real Estate, Anchorage

Alaska Real Estate, Anchorage, Juneau, Fairbanks, Sitka:

"Anchorage is easily the state’s largest urban center with nearly half of the state’s population. Housing sales have slowed like the over-whelming majority of the country, and Anchorage is projected by Housing Predictor to see deflation of 4.1% in 2008. The market boomed for a while, but not at double digit levels like in other areas of the nation."

It's hard to find independent analysis of the Anchorage housing market, but I did come across this. Thank god I am renting.

A Bearish Sign on N.Y. Home Prices - December 27, 2007 - The New York Sun

A Bearish Sign on N.Y. Home Prices - December 27, 2007 - The New York Sun:

New York City's status as a rosy exception to the nation's slowing housing market may be starting to come to an end.

Right now, most residents of NYC think that they are immune to the housing crash slump, but I'm not so sure.

Some real estate analysts say that despite the country's overall slowdown, Manhattan apartment prices will maintain an upward trajectory in the fourth quarter. "Our fourth quarter report is coming out next week and we expect price growth will continue," the chief economist at Halstead Property, Gregory Heym, said. "Several new condo developments are starting to close, such as the Plaza and 15 Central Park West, which will help push up prices."

In addition to apartment closings at new developments, where prices are often high, there are many larger units that are also closing, Mr. Heym said. Despite the market turmoil, Wall Street bonuses at many firms are expected to be solid, and with a weak dollar, foreign buyers continue to flock to Manhattan.

I guess in a few years Manhattan is going to consist of nothing but Wall Street executives living amongst a bunch of empty foreign owned apartments that are only used a couple of weekends a year.