Monday, August 20, 2007

Off topic... housing bubble

We are enjoying our impromptu vacation here in Southern California, so much so that we have discussed moving back here after I retire. The only problem though is the outrageous price of real estate here in the bloated California market.

I am not that worried though. I have spent the last few days reading extensively on the housing market, and I am convinced that our country is going to have a massive real estate crash, even worse than the 90's. My prediction is that in 4 to 5 years, I should be able to pick up a decent house here for under $300K.

You only have to look around here at people earning maybe 80K - 90K a year living in million dollar homes, to know that they are overextended. Sub-prime loans are coming due, foreclosures are at record levels, housing starts are down, and the housing inventory is increasing.

Don't expect a soft landing... it is going to be harsh, and will probably put us into a deep recession.

Perhaps the most telling thing is seeing people paying for million dollar homes and then driving around in Saturn's and other mid-range vehicles. Something is obviously not jiving.

The only question is how low and how long. My prediction... 25% nationally, 40-50% in bubble markets, and for prices not to stabilize until 2011.

Just saying...